Simon Rosenberg
...At Democratic think tank NDN, Simon Rosenberg estimates the campaigns will set aside less than 2 percent of their ad budget for the Internet.

SIMON ROSENBERG, PRESIDENT, NDN: It's too low, it should be higher, but politics tends to lag behind the commercial advertising trends.

GERSH: Control is a concern. No campaign wants to see the candidate's banner ad pop up next to something obscene. Even so, this campaign has proven the power of online social networks to raise voter interest and money.

ROSENBERG: It's exciting because what it's doing, more than anything else, is allowing average people to play a meaningful role in the life of their democracy. That's a healthy thing.

""Economic Choices 2008"-The TV Ad Boom," Nightly Business Report, June 24, 2008

Background on Millennials and young voters

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Among the many things that happened last night in Iowa was a very high turnout of young voters. For the last several years NDN and its affiliate the New Politics Institute have been making the case that a new generation of young Americans known as the Millennial Generation was poised to make a tremendous impact on politics.

As background please visit the following resources:

The 50-Year Strategy:

This article lays out a grand strategy for how today's Democrats could build a lasting electoral majority and today's progressives could seize the new media, build off new constituencies like Hispanics and the millennial generation, and solve the urgent governing challenges of our times.

The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation:

In this report, we take a comprehensive look at almost all available surveys and polls that have tried to figure out the politics of this important new generation of young people born in the 1980s and 1990s. The cumulative evidence shows that this generation is overwhelmingly progressive and unusually engaged in politics. (Video of an event we did around this report can be found here.)

Politics of the Millennial Generation:

This survey examined in detail the attitudes and behavior of three American generations — the Millennials, Gen-X'ers, and Baby Boomers — and, within the Millennials, three sub-generations, Teen Millennials, Transitional Millennials, and Cusp Millennials. Together the three generations consist of Americans 13-54 years old who were born from 1952-1993.

New Tools: Leverage Social Networks:

The final memo of our 2007 New Tools Campaign lays out how the booming social networking websites like Facebook and MySpace can be used to do many of the old-fashioned fundamentals of politics: branding, voter registration, fundraising, volunteering and voter turnout.

What comes after the Southern Strategy?

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In his New York Times column yesterday Paul Krugman thoughtfully examines the centrality of a great national electoral strategy, the Southern Strategy, to the recent rise of conservatives. It is a story line he explores in much more depth in his very worthwhile new book, The Conscience of a Liberal.

In our new article in Mother Jones magazine, The 50 Year Strategy, Peter Leyden and I argue that the progressives and Democrats are in the process of constructing the next great electoral strategy, one yet unnamed, that capitalizes on the emerging demography and politics of the early 21st century.

This new strategy builds upon Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Pacific West, requires Democrats and progressives to win in all the other regions of the country, and builds particularly upon the support of two new demographics that will end being very influential in the 21st century - Hispanics and Millennials.

Implicit in all this is how the concept of race is changing in America. For over 300 years, race in America was a white-black, majority-minority, exploitive experience. The very large wave of immigration America is currently experiencing, driven to a great degree by new Asian and Hispanic immigrants, is changing that historic and pernicious equation. In the age of the Southern Strategy minorities - African Americans - were a small fraction of the population. In America today "minorities" are over 30 percent of our national population. In my lifetime America will become a majority minority nation. Even the word minority itself will begin to change its meaning as American becomes a very different place with a very different people in the 21st century.

To get a sense of all this look at the Presidential fields. Taken together the GOP Presidential candidates look that 20th century Southern Strategy Party. The Democratic field, featuring a woman, an Hispanic, a mixed race candidate of African descent and a white populist from the New South, looks much more like the Party of this next more racially and geographically complicated post-Southern Strategy nation.

For more on the changing nature of America's Hispanic population, check out our new report Hispanics Rising.

A New Progressive Era – a major magazine piece out this week from us

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This week a major magazine piece hits the newsstands called "The 50-Year Strategy," a big picture look at how we can build a new progressive era, written by Peter Leyden and myself.

We published this piece right before the primaries because we wanted to help lift the gaze beyond just the 2008 election, and look at what it would take over the next several decades to build a movement capable of taking on the great challenges of our new century.

This piece is a significant evolution from our “Dawn of a New Politics” PowerPoint talk that some of you may have seen one or both of us give in various venues. We have been listening to feedback from you and others who have engaged our argument in that talk, and now we have taken the analysis to a new level. If the New Politics creates a huge opening for progressives, then what would it actually take to sustain a new progressive era?

We genuinely hope you will take time to read this piece and give us your feedback. And if you like it and largely agree with it, we hope you will send this around through your network. We really need to get everyone thinking long-term this election cycle, certainly in terms of decades, if not a full 50 years.

October 29, 2007

The 2008 elections are not just about the next four years, but potentially about the next several decades, argue Rosenberg and Leyden, who urge progressives not to simply think about a 50-state strategy, but a 50-year one. The collapse of the conservatives has provided an unusual political opening, they observe, while major shifts in technology and media, demographics, and the challenges the country faces have combined to give progressives an even rarer opportunity to restructure politics for the long term.

...campaigns are rethinking their media strategies. "There are so many new tools available to us, everything from cable to search to social networking sites," says Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of the Washington-based New Democratic Network, which recommends ad strategies to Democratic candidates and is creating a series of party-building spots. "People need to experiment with all these new tools." In particular, Rosenberg feels the "ratio between broadcast and cable spending is way out of whack."

TV ratings system tries to track impact of DVRs

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One of our recurring areas we look at here is how TV, the dominant medium of politics, is being re-invented. This year the Nielsen ratings system has implemented a new system to better track the impact of DVRs on TV viewing. The Times has a story this morning on Nielsen's progress, well worth reading in its entirety.

An excerpt:

Two weeks into the fall television season, broadcast networks are ensnared in familiar fights over ratings points and demographics. But this year, two new developments have removed much of the meaning from overnight ratings. One, the increasing use of the digital video recorder, has led to the other: ratings for commercials. DVR owners like Sara Morrison, a 26-year-old from Los Angeles, are making audience measurement harder for Nielsen Media Research, the company that calculates audiences for networks and advertisers. “I normally don’t even pay attention to the time slots shows are on,” Ms. Morrison said last week. She almost always fast-forwards through commercials, and because she can record all her favorite comedies and dramas, she hardly ever stumbles upon new shows. Ms. Morrison’s habits are not commonplace, at least not yet. Most television viewing still occurs live, even in DVR-equipped households, according to Nielsen. But the striking rise in DVR ownership — to 20 percent last month from 9 percent in September 2006 — is permanently altering the television playing field...

Might DVR ownership be at 35-40 percent by next year's election? And what does this mean for politics? Will half of all voters next year have the ability to skip through TV commercials? It sure looks like that's where we are headed...

Peter Leyden and Ruy Texeira respond to audience questions about the liberal tendencies of younger voting generations, key issues to Millennial voters including higher education, and the Millennial perceptions of national security in a post-9/11 environment.
Simon Rosenberg discusses the New Politics Institute and the significance of changing American demographics in the political world
Video for the full Millennial Politics event. To watch specific parts, please click on the links below.
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